Like the orchestra on the Titanic, TikTok users, publishers and staff seem to be waiting until the last minute to abandon ship despite the threat of a ban in the US.
TikTok is currently challenging the state’s divestment or ban law in the D.C. Circuit court of appeals, but it’s not going well. A former Justice Department spokesman told Business Insider this week that the court appeared poised to rule against TikTok. This could mean that owner ByteDance will need to sell its US operations to a non-Chinese company or else see it built on hardware stores from January.
Despite the grim sight, TikTok’s key players are still acting as if things are normal.
A current TikTok employee, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak about their employer, described the company’s atmosphere as “business as usual.” They felt that in a time of busy news, this week’s court debates did not drive as much attention in the country compared to when the divest-or-ban bill was signed. TikTok executives are pushing their reports to stay focused on business goals rather than worrying about broader political threats, The Information previously reported.
TikTok did not respond to a request for comment.
TikTok isn’t slow to hire and employees aren’t jumping ship
According to its job portal, TikTok is hiring about 3,000 jobs in the US. Tech recruiters told BI that they don’t see much improvement in performance from TikTok employees who want to escape the sinking ship, as was thought.
“My sense is that tech workers are hoping it can’t be stopped,” said Jovena Natal, founder of Clutch Talent, a recruitment agency that works with tech firms in New York and California.
Daniel Openshaw, managing director of emerging markets at Expand Group, an international recruiter, described TikTok’s staff as “relaxed” about the state of the ban.
Most TikTok creators don’t seem to mind the prospect of a ban. Some are skeptical that the ban will happen, as previous attempts by the state and the government have not stood up in court. Others are fighting it: In May, a group of eight TikTok creators filed a lawsuit against the US government over a possible ban.
In the end the ban may not be much of an issue for creators who have spent the last few years building an audience on YouTube clips and Instagram reels. Also, TikTok could still go some way if it ends up being sold to an American company – although that would be a setback.
“It’s not something that worries me as a creator,” TikToker Alex Ojeda, who has about 8.5 million followers, told BI about the possible ban. “I already have a huge audience on other platforms, so even if it were to be banned, for whatever reason, I’m not worried. [about] my job.” New creators who rely heavily on TikTok for audiences can be even more nervous, he said.
Brands plan to increase TikTok usage by 2025
Although creators are not too worried about the effect of the TikTok ban on their businesses, the 170 million American users may feel differently. TikTok users are turning to the app for more than just entertainment. They are still using it more for shopping and getting news. According to the Pew Research Center, about 17% of US adults – and 39% of those aged 18 to 29 – consume content on TikTok, up from 14% in 2023, and 3 % in 2020.
TikTok’s competitors are poised to capture the majority of its audience if the app is launched in the US. Business Insider’s sister company Emarketer said that TikTok’s 120 million US users could stream to Instagram and YouTube in the event of a ban. Meta could benefit by getting 22% to 27% of TikTok’s estimated $12.65 billion in US ad revenue by 2025, up to $2.38 billion, while YouTube could get $1.54 billion more, Emarketer estimated.
However, advertisers are not turning away from TikTok just yet. The guide, which measures spending from major advertising companies, said that ad spending on TikTok grew by 73% year-on-year in August. That compares to 21% growth for Meta and 10% for Snap over the same period.
A current TikTok employee told BI that they feel marketers are not paying attention to the TikTok ban as they are gearing up for the holiday season.
Almost seven out of 10 marketers surveyed by research firm Kantar between May and June this year said they plan to increase their investment in TikTok by 2025. Kantar surveyed more than 1,000 marketers the elite of the world.
“However, there is still room for TikTok to grow in the hearts of marketers, as it is the most popular advertising platform in the world among consumers next to Amazon,” said Gonca Bubani, global thought director for Kantar media.
“However, marketers have not yet trusted TikTok as their preferred platform,” he added.